In 2001 Enron collapsed in what was then the largest corporate bankruptcy in U.S. history. Enron’s clever (read that questionable and unethical) accounting tactics used Special Purpose Entities such as FASITs, REMICs and REITs to hide significant and substantial financial liabilities from their Balance Sheet. The result was that investors, employees, clients and other stakeholders did not have an accurate picture of what the company owed, or what its risk exposure really was.
Fast forward now 15 years. There is another similar crisis brewing, except on a far grander scale. Recent reports suggest that the world’s largest market-based economies as represented by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have an estimated $45 Trillion in National Debts with the U.S. leading the way with over 40% of that total, or $19 Trillion. However, those figures neither paint a full nor a complete picture of the country’s true liabilities. Those debt figures show only liabilities as measured by borrowings. But what about obligations that are not on any of these governments’ Balance Sheets. Future obligations such as retirement-based liabilities like Social Security, or healthcare-related ones like Medicare & Medicaid are not included in the National Debt figures. Estimates out there suggest that when these future obligations are indeed included the U.S. really owes anywhere between $100 & $200 Trillion. That puts the real U.S. debt burden at over 500% of GDP, fully five times higher than current published data indicate.
Consider these facts. In the last published edition of the Financial Report of the U.S. Government, as of September 30, 2015 the United States had assets of just over $3 Trillion. In contrast, they owed over $21 Trillion, a deficiency of over $18 Trillion. This $21 Trillion in liabilities is comprised primarily of the Public Debt ($13 Trillion), Federal Employee & Veterans Benefits owed (nearly $7 Trillion) and $1.5 Trillion in other obligations. Of interesting note is the fact that intragovernmental debt (of $5 Trillion) is not included in the $21 Trillion liability figure since it offsets from one agency of government to another. However, it is still owed and payable by the U.S. government which means it is included in the $19 Trillion National Debt figures. The second more ominous note is that nowhere in these Financial Reports do we see Social Security, Medicare & Medicaid obligations owed. This may be because these obligations are payable by the Social Security and Medicare Trust Funds respectively, and not owed by the Treasury Department. But that is just a technicality. The same way the government can show its obligations to Federal Employees & Veterans for the benefits they are due, is the same way the government can report its obligations to the rest of its citizens who are due benefits in the form of Social Security and Medicare.
It appears that the United States is employing similar creative Enron-style accounting tactics to hide the true obligations off its Balance Sheets. The rest of the OECD economies should do well to heed the lessons currently emanating from the U.S. The sooner all parties recognize the full extent of their obligations the sooner appropriate policies can be put in place to remedy them.
Keith Thompson is a Senior Economist in Transfer Pricing with an agency within the US Department of the Treasury, and an adjunct Economics professor with Ramapo College of New Jersey.